GENEVA – Global diesel markets remain under severe pressure as fuel prices begin rising again following a brief decline from record levels in late September. The Netherlands is among the most expensive countries in the European Union for diesel, with an average price of €2.53 per litre. According to the International Road Transport Union (IRU), diesel supply shortages could persist well into 2027.
In an analysis published on 16 October 2026, the IRU warns that diesel availability is being affected by the war in the Middle East, damaged Russian refineries, exceptionally high shipping costs and historically low oil inventories.
Wholesale diesel prices have returned to approximately USD 200 per barrel, roughly the same level as a month earlier. However, the factors driving those prices have changed.
While exceptionally high refining margins were the main cause of price increases in September, rising crude oil prices and shipping costs are now playing a greater role.
Netherlands among EU’s most expensive diesel markets
According to IRU figures, the EU’s weighted average diesel price reached a record €2.27 per litre on 27 September, an increase of 39% compared with 27 February.
Government measures, including tax reductions in several European countries, helped bring the average price down to €2.15 per litre on 7 October.
However, prices have since started increasing again. By 15 October, the EU average had reached €2.17 per litre, still 33% above its February level.
Denmark is currently the most expensive EU country for diesel at €2.56 per litre, followed by the Netherlands at €2.53.
France, Belgium and Finland are also among the most expensive markets, with diesel prices of approximately €2.35 per litre.
Poland is among the cheapest countries at €1.81 per litre, followed by Croatia at €1.83 and Spain at €1.87. The IRU attributes these relatively low prices partly to national government measures.
Middle East diesel exports remain severely restricted
A major cause of the continuing shortage is the sharp reduction in refined petroleum product exports from the Middle East.
Although crude oil exports have partially recovered, diesel and other refined product shipments remain far below pre-war levels.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Middle East exported 1.9 million barrels per day of refined products in September, compared with 4.7 million barrels before the conflict.
The five main exporters — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar — shipped a combined 1.5 million barrels per day by sea, approximately half their pre-war volume.
Conditions deteriorated again in October.
Data from Vortexa indicate that petroleum product flows, including LPG, through the Strait of Hormuz declined to 1.33 million barrels per day during the first twelve days of October.
Russian diesel exports collapse
Russia has also experienced a major reduction in diesel exports.
According to S&P Global, Russian diesel exports averaged approximately 140,000 barrels per day between July and September, compared with 693,000 barrels per day during the same period a year earlier.
Russia accounted for approximately 9% of global seaborne diesel trade in 2025.
Attacks on Russian refineries have severely reduced the country’s refining capacity. Analysts cited by The New York Times estimate that 40% to 50% of Russian refining capacity is currently offline.
The IEA expects changes to Russian export restrictions to have limited immediate impact because damaged refining infrastructure remains the main constraint.
Repairs could take months.
Global diesel exports fall sharply
Global diesel exports totalled approximately 4.7 million barrels per day in September, around 700,000 barrels below the previous year’s level.
Combined exports from the Middle East and Russia fell to 820,000 barrels per day, a decline of approximately 1.3 million barrels compared with a year earlier.
This represents a reduction of more than 60%.
The United States and China increased their combined exports by approximately 610,000 barrels per day, although those additional volumes were already declining from their August peak.
Europe is particularly exposed to reduced supplies from the Middle East and Russia.
The United States has become Europe’s largest external diesel supplier, accounting for approximately 40% of imports from outside the region this year, according to Kpler.
However, American diesel inventories are also under pressure.
By the end of September, US diesel stocks were 14% below their level a year earlier, reaching their lowest seasonal level in fourteen years.
Record tanker rates increase costs
Shipping costs are placing additional pressure on diesel prices.
According to the IRU, freight rates for clean product tankers leaving the Middle East reached their highest levels on 14 and 15 October since Argus Media began monitoring the routes in 2005.
One reason is that shipowners are increasingly deploying product tankers to transport crude oil, where freight earnings are higher.
This reduces the number of vessels available to carry diesel and other refined products.
Longer shipping routes are also contributing to higher costs.
A tanker transporting crude oil from Yanbu in Saudi Arabia to South Korea now spends more than fifty days at sea, compared with approximately 23 days before the war.
The cost of shipping one barrel of crude oil from the Middle East to East Asia has increased from approximately USD 3 before the conflict to more than USD 30.
Low Rhine water levels disrupt fuel distribution
European inland fuel distribution is facing additional difficulties because of extremely low water levels on the Rhine.
Barge deliveries to southern Germany and Switzerland have largely stopped.
At Kaub, the river gauge fell below zero at the end of September, reaching its lowest recorded level. On 16 October, the gauge stood at just 12 centimetres.
Barge freight rates to Basel reached €248.50 per tonne on 12 October.
Four German federal states have temporarily relaxed Sunday truck driving restrictions to support freight transport affected by low water levels.
The exemptions remain in effect until 31 October.
Oil inventories reach historic lows
Global oil inventories have fallen sharply.
According to the IEA, onshore inventories declined by another 113 million barrels in September, reaching their lowest level since at least 2016.
Total observed inventories were 509 million barrels below their end-February level.
Government oil stocks in OECD countries fell to 1.03 billion barrels at the end of August, their lowest level since December 1989.
On 15 October, the IEA Governing Board agreed to accelerate emergency stock releases, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible.
Approximately half of that diesel will come from France.
However, the IRU notes that these volumes remain relatively small compared with the global diesel supply shortfall.
IEA warns of further price increases
The IEA expects delivered diesel prices in Europe could rise again in the coming weeks.
Higher product tanker freight rates are increasing the difference between export prices and the cost of diesel delivered to European markets.
Winter demand will add further pressure.
Heating oil deliveries in Germany and France were approximately 50% lower in August than a year earlier, as households postponed purchases.
When those inventories are replenished, heating oil demand will compete with road transport for the same category of petroleum products.
The IEA expects the global gasoil market could return to a small surplus in the first quarter of 2027.
However, this would not be sufficient to rebuild inventories depleted during 2026.
A substantial recovery in stocks is unlikely before the second half of 2027 and depends heavily on the restoration of refined product exports from the Middle East.
Consequences for road transport operators
For road transport companies, the outlook suggests that fuel costs could remain elevated for an extended period.
According to the IRU, a return to pre-war diesel prices is unlikely before the second half of 2027.
At the same time, many temporary government measures designed to compensate for higher fuel prices are scheduled to expire on 31 October or 31 December.
The organisation stresses that tax reductions and financial relief can help transport operators manage cash flow, but they do not increase the physical supply of diesel.
Securing reliable fuel supplies and controlling fuel expenditure will therefore remain two separate challenges for road transport operators in the months ahead.
